What are the possible consequences of recognizing Palestine as a state by EU member states?
Will this help resolve the conflict?
Spain, Ireland and Norway have declared recognition of the Palestinian state, considering it a key step toward achieving lasting peace in the Middle East. However, this decision provoked a protest from Israel, which immediately ordered the recall of its ambassadors from these countries. The recognition of the Palestinian state was supported by most countries, including more than 140 of the 193 UN member states. However, among the 27 member states of the European Union, only a few have recognized this statehood. For example, Israel's allies, such as the United States and Germany, have not yet supported this step.
Israel and the United States emphasize that a Palestinian state can only be created through dialogue and negotiations.
Israeli authorities argue that formal recognition of a Palestinian state will only strengthen Hamas' position, threaten Israel's existence and complicate the possibility of reaching a diplomatic settlement of the armed conflict.
Who has recognized a Palestinian state?
Most countries, 139 in total, officially recognize the Palestinian state.
On May 10, at the UN General Assembly, 143 out of 193 members supported Palestine's application for full membership in the UN, which is available only to states.
Palestine currently has an extended observer status at the UN, which allows it to have a seat but not a vote in the assembly. It has also been recognized by various international organizations, including the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
In Europe, less than half of the countries recognize Palestinian statehood. In 1988, Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Bulgaria did so, followed by Sweden, Cyprus, and Malta. However, many European countries, including the United States, say they are only ready to recognize Palestine if there is a long-term political solution to the conflict in the Middle East.
Positions on the timing of Palestinian state recognition differ between European countries and the United States. Ireland, Spain, and Norway argue that they should do so now to start a political process, supporting the idea that the current crisis can only be resolved through political dialogue. They are also responding to domestic political pressure to support the Palestinians.
Many Western countries previously believed that Palestinian statehood should be the result of a final peace agreement. However, some European countries have changed their position and believe that recognizing Palestine could help speed up the political process.
In February, French President Emmanuel Macron said that "recognizing a Palestinian state is not a taboo for France". In May, France supported Palestinian membership in the United Nations in a vote in the General Assembly.
The United States is discussing this issue with European allies, but is very cautious and wants to get a clearer idea of the possible consequences of such a policy in practice.
So, the main debate is about when the supporting countries should recognize a Palestinian state and how this can contribute to a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
What is the problem with recognizing a Palestinian state?
Countries that do not recognize Palestinian statehood refrain from taking this step because of agreements with Israel.
Fawaz Gerges, a professor of Middle Eastern politics at the London School of Economics, explains that the United States, while supporting the idea of a Palestinian state, insists on direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine, which effectively gives Israel a veto over Palestinian aspirations for self-determination.
Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians began in the 1990s with the goal of creating two states that could coexist peacefully side by side.
But the fading of the process in the early 2000s and the ultimate collapse of the 2014 talks in Washington left the most pressing issues unresolved. These include the borders and nature of the future Palestinian state, the status of Jerusalem, and the fate of Palestinian refugees from the 1948-49 Arab-Israeli war that led to the proclamation of the creation of Israel.
Israel also strongly opposes Palestine's application for UN membership, calling the very fact of discussing it a "victory for genocidal terror."
Countries that care about warm relations with Israel understand that recognizing a Palestinian state would anger their ally.
Some of them argue that the Palestinians do not meet the key criteria for statehood defined in the 1933 Montevideo Convention, namely, having a defined territory, a population living on it, and their own government, as well as the ability to establish relations with other states.
What's next?
The question is that the recognition of a Palestinian state is basically a symbolic gesture if it is not accompanied by the resolution of key vital issues.
What will the borders be? Where will the capital be located? What should both sides of the conflict do to finally resolve these issues?
These are complex questions that have been seeking answers for decades.
It can now be seen that some European countries have officially recognized the right of a Palestinian state to exist.
Adherents will applaud the move, while opponents will condemn it. But if Palestine becomes a full-fledged state, it will find allies both in the Arab world and beyond. Sovereign states have the right to an independent foreign policy and can enter into alliances with any country.
We know that Hamas has received support from Iran, which is hostile to Israel, but the nature of that support is different from Iran's interactions with other groups. After the recent attacks between Israel and Iran, any rapprochement between the Palestinian state and Iran would be seen as a serious threat to Israel's security.
The stakes are high, but the situation is becoming increasingly desperate on both sides. With the high number of casualties in Gaza and the destruction of lives, as well as the occupation of East Jerusalem and the West Bank. A final status agreement is becoming less and less likely. Something has to change.
