The war may last for a long time: Budanov made a disappointing forecast for Ukraine
At the same time, no one is going to satisfy the territorial
The war can go on for a long time. The Russians will simply not sign anytreaty with Kyiv and the coalition of allies, but will continue to carry outchaotic shelling of Ukraine, but without conducting powerful hostilities.Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, said this inan interview with NV .
"There are cases in history when long-standing wars between stateshave not been legally completed. A simple example is Russia and Japan. After1945, they never signed a peace treaty over the Northern Islands (which Russiacalls the Kuril Islands). This territorial problem is more than 70 years old.Therefore, this scenario is very likely to happen here, because Russia hassignificant territorial appetites for Ukraine, not only in Crimea. Of course,no one is going to satisfy these appetites", — Budanov said.
The DIU chief also listed the factors that will determine russia's nearfuture. Among them, he mentioned systemic changes in the Russian economy,foreign supplies of military and technical goods, and a psychological factor —the growing fatigue of war in society.
"So far, the Russian Federation is still economically stable. Yes,we are seeing a large-scale fuel crisis, a sharp rise in the price of food andother goods and services. All this is shaking their economy and social sphere,and they will face real problems in 2025", — Budanov said.
However, production chains in Russia have not yet been destroyed and cansurvive for more than a year. However, war fatigue among Russians is growingrapidly, and the population, including the male population, is also rapidlydeclining, although this does not mean that putin will have problems withcannon fodder.
The head of the GUR also noted that it is now very important to listento economists who model situations, taking into account a variety of differentdata.
"There is hope that 2025 will be a turning point in terms ofinternal systemic destructive changes and processes in the Russian state,society and economy. But this is not a forecast, but an expectation. As of now,based on the available factors, this is likely. But let's not forget that thiswar is globalizing every month and generating new processes. They will also besuperimposed on the situation and will greatly change any preliminarycalculations. This is a challenge that the world's leading analysts havealready faced", — said Kyrylo Budanov.
In an interview with The Economist in earlyNovember, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ValeriyZaluzhny, admitted that the situation at the front had reached a deadlock.