Can Ukraine Transfer the War to the Aggressor's Territory?

On August 6, the Ukrainian army launched a raid in the kursk region of russia. Since the start of the operation, the military command in Kyiv has remained mysteriously silent, traditionally refraining from commenting until the operation concludes.

In the public sphere, expert opinions have surfaced, focusing on the possibility of Ukraine capturing the Sudzha gas metering station, which handles the only active transit route for russian gas to Europe via Ukrainian territory (serving "gazprom" clients in Austria, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic). Another speculation centers on the potential takeover of the kursk nuclear power plant, located 60 km from the border.

As of August 25, according to DeepStateMap data, Ukraine controls 823.43 km² of territory in the kursk region. Could this operation pave the way for ending the war?

Symbolism and Social Media: How Did the Ukrainian Government Manage to Deceive Everyone?

The prelude to what is currently happening in belgorod began in March this year with the activities of the russian Volunteer Corps (rDC) in the belgorod region. At that time, many military experts unanimously stated that this could mark the beginning of transferring the war to the aggressor’s territory, i.e., russia. At that point, Ukraine was not using its own equipment or armed forces but rather the rDC and the "Freedom of russia" Legion. This was done with the calculation that in case of criticism from allies or attempts to limit military aid or pressure Ukraine to avoid escalation, Kyiv could say: "It’s not us fighting; it’s not the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but russians who decided to fight against the putin regime."

That raid was quite successful in terms of territorial gains and showcasing new possibilities. Although the situation on critical fronts in eastern Ukraine, particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, did not change significantly, this move altered the Ukrainian society's approach to the war. It sparked a wave of enthusiasm among Ukrainians, manifesting in various memes and jokes about the "belgorod People's Republic" and the possibility of transferring the war to the aggressor's territory, something experts had long discussed.

The main message Ukraine received was this: we entered russian territory, and there was no escalation. There was neither the nuclear strike that russian propagandists so vigorously threatened nor changes in international policies towards Ukraine. The front line remained unchanged, and support from Western partners continued at the same volume. This essentially opened the way for Ukraine to carry out more extensive offensive operations on russian territory.

As a result, a few months later, Ukraine launched an offensive in the kursk region, achieving significant strategic successes, including capturing Sudzha and nearing the kursk nuclear power plant.

All these calculations by the Ukrainian authorities turned out just as planned. Ukraine deployed its troops, including Armed Forces units, into russian territory without any sanctions or restrictions from Western allies. Most allies support Ukraine in its efforts to transfer the war to the aggressor's territory.

The operation also demonstrated that russia's defense is quite weak, as Ukraine quickly captured Sudzha — a critical strategic object. This is a gas metering station that handles the only active transit route for russian gas to Europe through Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine not only successfully captures strategic objects on russian territory but also faces no substantial escalation in response, despite numerous threats from russia about massive attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. None of these threats have materialized, further proving russia's inability to defend even its own territories.

Interestingly, even russian propagandists have begun preparing their population for a new reality in which hostilities may already occur on russian soil. For Ukraine, this holds enormous strategic significance, as transferring the war to the aggressor's territory is a key element of its defensive strategy.

The Practical Significance of the kursk Operation: Why Are the Border Regions Important for the kremlin's Economy, and What Will Be the Consequences of Bringing the War to These Regions?

The introduction of a counter-terrorism operation regime in the bryansk, kursk, and belgorod regions indicates the seriousness of potential unrest in these areas. This is already negatively impacting moscow's economy, especially in these regions, which are crucial for many industries.

In particular, belgorod region, as the most developed and densely populated among the three under the regime, plays a vital role in moscow's economy. This is evident even in satellite images: more roads, modern buildings, and better infrastructure. Unlike the more forested and marshy bryansk and kursk regions, belgorod has a significant level of industrial development. Although these regions are relatively small in size, they are among the most densely populated in moscow, with a combined population of about 4 million people, making them important markets for goods and services.

belgorod was also the first to feel the consequences of the war, particularly due to frequent shelling from Kharkiv, which caused a mass exodus of people, further worsening the situation for moscovites. This outflow undermines the construction sector, one of the driving forces of the region’s economy, as demand for housing falls and workers leave the area.

The kursk nuclear power plant, which provides electricity to kursk, bryansk, and partially belgorod regions, is also under threat. The escalation of hostilities in these areas could lead to the shutdown of new power units, complicating the power supply. Shelling of transformer substations has already been recorded, causing power outages in some settlements.

If hostilities continue deeper into moscow, this could lead to significant destruction of infrastructure and further deterioration of the economic situation in these regions. A massive exodus of people, rising unemployment, and energy supply issues will negatively affect local businesses, causing even greater decline.

The introduction of a counter-terrorism operation regime will only increase lawlessness, allowing fsb officers and militants to plunder the local population.

Overall, the events in the kursk region could herald larger upheavals in moscow, with serious consequences for the aggressor country itself.

What’s Next?

To understand what comes next in the kursk situation, it is worth considering the objectives of this operation. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Ukrainian military’s advance into the kursk region of russia was a "preemptive strike" that helped prevent the encirclement of part of the Sumy region and thwarted plans to occupy Sumy.

According to Zelenskyy, the operation in Kursk is complex but has already achieved several important results and is developing according to plan. Ukrainian forces are replenishing the exchange fund by capturing russian soldiers and have disrupted the russian operation in the north.

Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence, a member of parliament, and a Ukrainian military officer, noted that Ukrainian forces have several options for further actions in the kursk region.

"The first option is to continue the offensive, which depends on our reserves, capabilities, and the enemy's actions. The enemy is gradually redeploying reserves, but has not yet been able to stop our front. The main thing is that we are advancing and expanding the bridgehead. The second option is to consolidate positions, secure the captured territories, and create defensive lines", Kostenko commented.

He emphasized that the essence of the operation in the kursk region is to impose Ukraine's actions on the enemy in another direction, which is critically important in the war. Additionally, by entering the kursk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have demonstrated that the front line over 1,000 km long remains unprotected.

"Intelligence reported on the weak protection of the russian borders, similar to what was in kursk: conscripts, fsb officers, border guards, 'dragon's teeth,' and defense lines that our paratroopers successfully breached. We have shown that we can operate on their territory, striking and capturing targets. This changes the course of the war, and now russia will have to adapt. Although the Donetsk region remains their priority, the consequences of the kursk operation are yet to come, and they will be disastrous for russia", concluded Roman Kostenko.