Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: there is a risk that the war will move into a positional mode, which will benefit Russia

The war inUkraine is moving to a dangerous positional stage, which in the long term willplay into the hands of the Russian aggressor.

Thecommander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said this in an interview with TheEconomist.

Accordingto him, due to many subjective and objective reasons, military operations aremoving to a new stage — a "positional" war of static and exhaustingcombat, as opposed to a "manoeuvre" war of movement and speed.

Accordingto Zaluzhnyi, this stage will benefit Russia, because it will allow it torestore its military power, which will threaten the AFU and the existence ofthe Ukrainian state.

"Thebiggest risk of a positional war of attrition is that it could drag on foryears and tire the Ukrainian state. The current situation on the front isreminiscent of the First World War — we have reached a level of technologicaldevelopment that puts us in a stalemate. There will most likely be no deep andbeautiful breakthrough. To break the deadlock, we need a huge technologicalleap, following the example of the invention of gunpowder by the Chinese,"Zaluzhnyi wrote.

The Commander-in-Chiefnoted that to get out of this stage, Ukraine needs key military capabilitiesand technologies, and also named five key priorities for solving currentproblems.

Control over the sky

The veryfirst and top priority, according to Zaluzhnyi, is air superiority.

"Controlover the skies is needed for large-scale ground operations. At the beginning ofthe war we had 120 combat aircraft. Of these, only one-third were usable. TheRussian Air Force retains a significant advantage over us and continues tobuild new strike squadrons. This advantage has made it difficult for us to moveforward," the general noted.

In thiscontext, Zaluzhnyi explained that long-range missile systems and tanks weremost relevant for the AFU in 2022, but the allies transferred these weaponsonly in 2023. During this time, the aggressor was able to regroup andstrengthen defences.

"Theexperimental version of the S-400 missile system can reach the borders of thecity of Dnipro," he warned.

Inaddition, the AFU commander-in-chief noted, the F-16 multirole fighters thatUkraine will receive only next year may already be "less useful" asrf has improved its air defence system.

Electronicwarfare

ValeriiZaluzhnyi named electronic warfare (EW) as the second priority, which is key towinning the drone war. Over the past decade, he said, Russia has modernised itsREB systems and created a new kind of army and 60 new types of equipment.

"It issuperior to Ukraine in this: 65 per cent of our platforms at the beginning ofthe war were produced back in Soviet times. We have already created a lot ofour own electronic defence systems. However, we also need more access toelectronic intelligence from our allies and expansion of production lines forour counter-defence electronic warfare systems in Ukraine and abroad,"wrote the AFU commander.

Counter-batteryfire

Zaluzhnyisingled out counter-battery fire as the third priority. According to him, whenthe Ukrainian military first received Western weapons last year, it wassuccessful enough to detect Russian artillery and hit it. However, theeffectiveness of such weapons as the US GPS-guided Excalibur projectile wasdrastically reduced due to improvements in Russian electronic warfare andimproved the aggressor's counter-battery fire.

The generalalso noted that despite the disparaging opinion of some military analysts,Ukraine should not downplay the effectiveness of Russian weapons andintelligence. In his opinion, the AFU needs to make greater use of kamikazedrones to strike Russian artillery. He asked partners to send better artilleryand reconnaissance equipment that can detect Russian guns.

Improvingmine clearance

The fourthtask the AFU has faced, according to Valerii Zaluzhnyi, is to improve deminingtechnology.

"Westerndeliveries of demining equipment have proved insufficient, given the scale ofRussian minefields, which sometimes extend 15-20 kilometres. When we breakthrough the minefields, Russia quickly replenishes them by releasing new minesat a distance," the AFU chief noted.

Manpower as"gunpowder" for victory

The generalsingled out the build-up of manpower reserves as the last, fifth priority.According to Zaluzhnyi, Russia was unable to utilise its huge quantitativeadvantage in force, but specified that Ukraine's ability to prepare reserves onits own territory, is also limited.

"Weare trying to solve these problems. We are introducing a unified register ofconscripts, we have to expand the category of citizens who can be called up fortraining camps or on mobilisation. We are also introducing 'combat training',which involves placing newly mobilised and trained personnel in experiencedforward units for their training," Valerii Zaluzhnyi wrote.

Inaddition, the general was mistaken with the idea that Russia could be stoppedby disempowering its troops.

"Thatwas my mistake. russia lost at least 150,000 people killed. In any othercountry, such losses would have stopped the war. But not in russia, where lifeis cheap and where the benchmark for Putin is the First and Second World Wars,in which russia lost tens of millions of people," the AFUcommander-in-chief said.

"Weneed to look for this solution, we need to find this "gunpowder",quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later wewill find that we simply do not have enough people to fight," ValeriiZaluzhnyi wrote and added that the drop in morale of Ukrainians and the levelof support of the West is exactly what the Kremlin is counting on.

Thecommander of the Ukrainian army stressed that Russia should not beunderestimated because the aggressor will have an advantage in weapons,equipment, missiles and ammunition for a long time to come.