The year 2024 could be a year of major changes in terms of restructuring the security architecture in the world. The main catalysts for these changes may be: further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the US elections

In 2024, the U.S. presidential election will take place, and it is no exaggeration to say that the results of this election will have a major impact on the entire world politics. Even now, in the midst of the election race, the statements and actions of the candidates have an impact on thousands of lives hundreds of kilometers away from the American electoral districts. 

Donald Trump's statements and actions are undermining allies' confidence in the United States

Although the Biden administration is doing everything possible to provide military assistance to Ukraine, Republicans are clearly positioned against allowing President Biden to pursue his preferred policies, even if it is detrimental to the image of the United States on the world stage.

For example, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Michael Johnson, refuses to discuss the bill on providing assistance to Ukraine, for which 70 senators voted in favor and only 29 against. Because Donald Trump is against it. Why is he against it? The key reason: Donald Trump wants to win the election in November. And he doesn't want to give President Biden the opportunity to win any small victory at all.

This is very much disliked by the allies in the EU, which is why the European Parliament voted to create a fund of 50 billion euros to support Ukraine during 2024-2027.

And the French authorities have announced the possibility of sending their troops to Ukraine in the near future, and Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair has also said that they may also deploy their soldiers in Ukraine. Although this does not mean direct participation of the alliance in the fighting, it is a serious message to both Russia and the United States that European countries are ready to take control of the security situation in the region. 

Ukraine, in turn, is trying to look for alternative sources of assistance 

Ukraine is actively concluding bilateral security agreements, having already reached such agreements with the Netherlands, the UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Italy and Canada. At the moment, the country has seven such documents with the G7 countries and the EU.

The process began at the Vilnius NATO Summit, where, although there were no specific dates for Ukraine's membership in the Alliance, the Ukrainian side signed a joint declaration with the G7 members. In this declaration, the countries pledged to support Ukraine's course toward NATO and to ensure security along the way. The agreements concluded with other countries basically reproduce the cooperation that already exists within NATO.

These bilateral agreements provide for various commitments, including military assistance, exchange of military technologies, and other aspects. Each agreement has its own specifics, for example, the agreement with the United Kingdom includes cooperation in intelligence sharing, military training, and the defense industry. Agreements such as those with Germany and France are designed to last for ten years and provide financial support for Ukraine. Signatory nations such as Denmark, Canada, Italy and the Netherlands also make contributions, such as the provision of F-16 aircraft, financial, diplomatic, military and cyber assistance.

Ukraine expects all NATO members and more than 30 other countries to sign security agreements that guarantee Ukraine's defense, which could be an alternative to membership in the alliance and could reduce the country's dependence on U.S. aid.

Poland considers the United States an unreliable ally and has announced its intention to produce its own nuclear weapons

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that if the United States does not provide assistance to Ukraine, the allies may lose confidence in Washington, which, in their opinion, "cannot provide assistance" and they will be forced to rely on their own strength.

According to Sikorski, this could have a significant impact on all American alliances around the world, leading countries to seek means to defend themselves, including considering the possibility of developing nuclear weapons.

So it should be noted that the 2024 US presidential election and the actions of American politicians have a huge global impact. Disputes between the Republicans and the Biden administration over aid to Ukraine are creating tensions and undermining allies' confidence in the U.S. The Ukrainian government is looking for alternative sources of support, concluding bilateral agreements with numerous countries. And some allies already view the United States as an unreliable partner, which all together creates risks and danger of losing influence in the global arena for Washington.