What Europe and Ukraine Should Prepare For

The 2024 U.S. presidential election became one of the most tense political events in the country's history. The two main candidates — Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris — represented not just different political views, but two distinct approaches to solving America's socio-economic problems. In these elections, besides the president, Americans also elected the full composition of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, giving even more weight to this choice.

Despite numerous foreign policy challenges, the 2024 election primarily focused on domestic issues: high inflation, the housing cost crisis, rising cost of living, and declining middle-class welfare. Both candidates approached these issues with different priorities and strategies, which caused tension in society.

What the Candidates Promised

The differences in Trump's and Harris's programs primarily concerned economic policy, especially regarding taxes and social programs.

Kamala Harris's Program

The main goal of Harris's economic program was to reduce inequality and support the middle class. She promised to raise taxes for the wealthiest Americans (those earning over $400,000 per year) and use these funds to expand social programs.

Specifically, Harris planned to:

• Introduce child tax credits and assistance for the middle class;
• Increase corporate tax from 21% to 28%;
• Ban unjustified price increases on essential goods;
• Stimulate housing construction to reduce its cost.

Donald Trump's Program

Meanwhile, Donald Trump focused on tax cuts and protectionist economic policy. He promised to:

• Continue tax relief measures introduced during his previous term;
• Establish 10-20% tariffs on imported goods to protect American manufacturers;
• Reduce corporate tax to 15% for some companies;
• Introduce additional benefits for Americans, including tax exemptions for overtime work and tips.

Reasons for Trump's Victory

Trump's victory has several main causes, each demonstrating voter sentiment specifics and campaign peculiarities.

1. Economic dissatisfaction. According to polls, a significant portion of Americans believe their welfare has significantly deteriorated in recent years. Against the backdrop of rising prices and real estate costs, many see Trump as a businessman capable of "saving" the economy from stagnation and the "quiet depression" that has gripped the USA.
2. Hope for decisive action. Despite the controversy of many of his decisions, Trump is associated with a decisive leader capable of taking unpopular but necessary steps. His promises to fight inflation through tax cuts and stimulating U.S. production resonated with voters.
3. Protectionist promises. The average American, having felt the effects of globalization, tends to support Trump's protectionist approaches, particularly the introduction of high import tariffs and stimulation of local production.
4. Distrust of Democrats on national security issues. Some voters believed Democrats underestimated illegal migration threats and weren't active enough in strengthening borders. Trump's program of building a wall on the Mexican border and limiting immigration gained these voters' support.

What to Expect from Trump

Based on Trump's statements and analysis of his previous actions, several key directions can be identified in which U.S. policy will develop under his leadership.

1. Economic protectionism. Tax cuts and import tariffs may boost local production but will also increase imported goods prices. This will create additional pressure on the middle class, who may face higher costs for basic goods.
2. Strict immigration policy. Trump promised to continue deporting illegal migrants, which he believes will reduce pressure on the labor and rental housing markets. This approach can have both positive and negative consequences, depending on implementation and economic conditions.
3. Possible foreign policy escalations. Trump seeks negotiations with russia and other countries regarding new agreements, but his tough approach to China may cause new trade conflicts.
4. Uncertainty in military aid to Ukraine. Trump promised to find a way to end the conflict in Ukraine, but his position remains uncertain. American society's support is important for Ukraine, but Trump may seek compromises that don't always align with Ukrainian interests.

Conclusion

Trump's victory in the 2024 election promises significant changes for both the USA and the global economy. His decisive management style, combined with protectionism and desire to limit immigration, may create new challenges for international cooperation but also open opportunities for American economic growth in the short term.