The reinforcement of its own forces in Kharkiv region indicates that the Russian military is likely to continue to prioritize efforts to withdraw and withdraw Ukrainian forces from critical sections of the front line in eastern Ukraine and create a "buffer zone" in northern Kharkiv region.

"Russian forces likely intend to launch a second phase of their offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast after the scheduled capture of Volchansk, although positional fighting and possible Ukrainian counterattacks may require Russian forces to conduct another wave of intensified assaults in the area to complete the capture of the city", analysts said.

ISW suggests that Russian forces are likely holding back many reserves of the Northern Group of Forces, which is manned by elements of the 11th Army Corps, the 44th AK and the 6th Combined Arms Army - all units of Russia's Leningrad Military District (LVO). The Northern Group of Forces, even at the upper limit of its stated final strength, will not have the necessary manpower required to conduct a successful operation to encircle or capture Kharkiv.

• The day before, the head of the Kharkiv regional military administration, Oleg Sinegubov, said that the Russian Federation could go on the offensive in the Zolochevsky direction in Kharkiv Oblast in order to engage as many Ukrainian troops as possible in the defense of the north of the region.