The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will have long-term consequences for the regime. But it will not destabilize the country in the way that the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could

The helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the Foreign Minister and other government officials crashed.

Who is Ebrahim Raisi?

He was nicknamed the "Butcher of Tehran" for his role in the execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. In 2021, Raisi was elected president of Iran, marking the beginning of a tougher policy in the country. His administration has tightened morality laws, increased support for militants in the Middle East, and accelerated Iran's nuclear program. Raisi's government harshly suppressed the protests, using violence and executions.

Raisi was considered the second most important political figure in Iran after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and was widely seen as his possible successor.

In the event of Ebrahim Raisi's death, his duties will temporarily pass to Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber.

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi could have serious consequences for the country, but would not destabilize it too much

The death of Iran's current president, Ebrahim Raisi, may create certain problems in the country's leadership. In Iran, the president is not the head of state, but ranks second in the state hierarchy after the "Supreme Leader" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. According to the Iranian constitution, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will temporarily perform the duties of President Raisi. The election of a new president should take place within 50 days. However, it will change the current direction of the regime to a tougher and more conservative domestic policy and a more aggressive regional strategy.

Mokhber was the head of the Execution of Imam Khomeini's Order (EIKO), a parastatal organization in Iran that reports directly to Ali Khamenei and has significant economic assets. The United States imposed sanctions on Mokhber and EIKO in 2021.

Ebrahim Raisi himself was not popular with the public, but his death could be a trigger for large-scale consequences, including powerful anti-government demonstrations that were hardly suppressed in 2022.

There are also many dissident groups inside Iran, including offshoots of the Islamic State, that could try to take advantage of this situation. In the long run, Raisi's death may have consequences even for the supreme leader.

For religious and conservative Iranians, Raisi's death will be a cause for mourning; however, for many, it will be the death of a man with bloody hands. Thus, Raisi's death could have a significant impact on the succession of the supreme leader and Khamenei's vision for the future of the regime after his own death. The next few days could change both the current and long-term dynamics of the regime.