The war in Ukraine may enter a low-intensity phase and last for decades

The RussianFederation has no resources for a protracted and exhausting war in Ukraine.De-occupation of the captured territories can last for decades and end innegotiations with the participation of the international community with therestoration of the principles of international law.

This wastold by political observer Vitaly Portnikov in the air of YouTube-channel Govorit big Lviv.

Accordingto the expert, russia and Ukraine have no reserves for decades of a long andexhausting war, so the current war will either end or move to a phase of lowintensity, and "this will happen much faster than we think".

The analystis convinced that the European Commission's recommendation to startnegotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU is a crucial signal to therussian side that Ukraine will exist as an independent state under anycircumstances.

"Thisis a confirmation that Ukraine will be part of the European Union no matter howthe current confrontation with rf ends. The main thing is the preservation of thestate and the Ukrainian people on this land. And not just the preservation ofthe state, but the preservation of a European state," the expert said.

At the sametime, the analyst noted that the restoration of territorial integrity may takeplace both militarily and politically, and may take a long time, up to decades.However, in his opinion, the point is not that, but that Ukraine will join theEuropean Union within its internationally recognised borders.

"If bythe time of joining the EU the issue of Ukraine's territorial integrity is notresolved militarily, it will be resolved through political negotiations of theentire civilised world with russia. And this is also the tool that will help usrestore international law sooner or later," the expert concluded.

The war could go on for another five years

Meanwhile,Western officials are increasingly suggesting that Russia's war against Ukrainecould last for another five years, as neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready tosurrender, but neither is capable of making a breakthrough.

The Economist notes that the war in Ukraine has become a reminder not only of howmuch ammunition is consumed in major wars, but also of how poor Westernarsenals and the ability to replenish them really are. The United States isdramatically increasing production of 155mm artillery shells, but theirproduction in 2025 is likely to still be lower than Russia's in 2024.

Thepublication notes that Israel's war with Hamas is two different types of warand requires different types of weapons. At the moment, the US is likely to beable to meet the demands of both countries, but if one (or both) wars drag on,problems may arise.

"Over time,compromises will have to be made, as some key systems will be redirected toIsrael. Some of the systems that Ukraine needs for a counter-offensive may notbe available in the quantities that Kyiv was counting on," said MarkKansian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, aWashington-based think tank.