Energy System Crisis in Ukraine: What to Expect in Winter

High-voltage grids
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On June 21, 2023, the United Nations warned of Ukraine's inability to improve its energy infrastructure before the onset of winter. According to Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal, there is not a single thermal or hydroelectric power station that has not been subjected to hostile attacks, as occupiers have carried out more than 270 attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities over the year. 42 out of the 94 most important high-voltage transformers have been destroyed or damaged. As a result, Ukraine's energy system capacity has decreased by 68%.

As reported by "Economic Pravda", Dmytro Sukharuk, the executive director of DTEK, described the situation as follows: "The conditions in which we will begin this winter will be much more challenging than they were at the beginning of the previous one. We ended the last autumn-winter period with the destruction or damage to 75% of thermal production. This was not the case in 2022."

"The energy sector is preparing, and a lot of work is being done to restore high-voltage grids and production. Unfortunately, not everything can be done. Even with the availability of funds, the manufacturing and delivery times will not allow us to prepare for the heating season. The high-voltage grid will be restored at most by 30-40% compared to its usual state," said Alexander Kharchenko, the director of the Energy Research Center.

According to the chairman of the parliamentary committee on energy and housing and communal services, Andrii Herus, the current lack of reserve capacity in "Ukrenergo" networks, especially at the company's substations, is the biggest problem at the moment. "We depend on large facilities that generate electricity through large substations. Accordingly, the reserve capacity at these substations is crucial, and currently, it is insufficient," emphasised the deputy.

"If the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is not in the grid, we will have serious problems with electricity production. The size of this deficit cannot be compensated for by imports. We simply cannot import such a large quantity. Therefore, there may be restrictions in winter," believes Kharchenko.

According to energy experts, in winter, when electricity consumption in Ukraine increases, mass power outages due to systemic accidents are possible, even without new attacks. Therefore, Ukrainians are advised to ensure the availability of portable chargers and generators in advance.

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